← ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
Fire EruptingTier 1
at ALC Massachusetts Regionals Presented By Lineage Break
decks
4
(17.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
12-8-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.8%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1316
· median 1325
· range 1138–1474
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1140
Q3 1317
1474
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 75.2% | +16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
